The Tim Horton's 'Roll Up the Rim to Win' contest says odds of winning are 1 in 9.
Then how come I've tried 11 times and have yet to win anything?
Ah well, if that is an allegory of my life in a nutshell, then I have this to say, "I will keep persevering."
Grace to you, Vien
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3 comments:
It's probability! You probably weren't looking for the answer, but if it helps:
There are a few ways to calculate things. Let's look at your chance of losing. Each time, it is 8/9. After buying your first cup, you have 8/9 chances of losing and 1/9 of winning.
Now, you buy your second cup. Your chances of losing are (8/9)*(8/9) = 0.79 or a .21 chance of winning.
After buying 11 cups, your chance of losing each time are (8/9)^11 = .274, which gives you a 72.6% chance of winning. So, 3 out of 4 people who buy 11 cups of coffee will win at least once, and 1 of 4 won't.
So, here are your chances of winning as you keep buying:
If you buy 15 cups, you'll have a 83% chance of winning. 20 cups would give you a 90% chance of winning. 30 cups will give you a 97% chance of winning. 40 cups will give you a 99% chance of winning.
For every 100 people that buy 40 cups of coffee, one of them doesn't win anything. But, the odds are very good that you'd win before buying 40 cups of coffee.
--Nathan
haha, you're right, but thanks Nathan, now I have a plan in place. I'm pretty sure I'll buy 15 cups by the time this contest is over, so let's see if my 83% comes up.
Man Yao, you really need to be taken out more!
LOL
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